Tension Rises in the Aviation Market Due to SAF Shortage

International aviation is facing a new source of tension — requirements for the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Since 2025, the European Union has required airlines to ensure a minimum share of SAF in their fuel of 2%, with the requirements set to gradually tighten further. At the same time, the EU intends to extend environmental fuel levies to foreign airlines operating flights to Europe.

The main problem is that the market is not yet ready for such a pace of transition. According to IATA data, the share of SAF in global aviation fuel consumption today is less than 1%, and the cost of such fuel is several times higher than that of conventional jet kerosene. As a result, airlines find themselves in a situation where environmental requirements are growing significantly faster than the industry’s ability to supply the necessary volumes of fuel.

Against this backdrop, concern is growing within the aviation industry over future costs. European carriers are already warning that the SAF shortage, environmental levies, and rising costs will inevitably be reflected in the price of air tickets and freight transport. As a result, the environmental transition in aviation is gradually becoming not only a climate initiative but also a serious economic challenge for the global aviation market.